Saleh recovering from surgery, but his fate in Yemen uncertain

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh will be well enough to return home in two weeks, say doctors in Saudi Arabia who treated the neighbouring leader for wounds suffered in the blast inside his personal mosque in Sanaa. While the President may be healthy enough, it’s unclear whether he’ll have the support to command the country he has ruled the past 33 years

“The regime has been decapitated,” political analyst Abdel-Ghani Iryani said. It’s “an unexpected and very welcome development.”

The President’s departure had raised the prospect of a violent struggle for power. Already, forces loyal to the President and his sons had been fighting forces of the al-Ahmar family and the Hashids, both of which sided with protesters in calling for Mr. Saleh to step down. Street battles over the past week had pushed the country to the brink of civil war.

Since the attack on the Saleh mosque, however, an uneasy calm prevailed in the capital as a Saudi-encouraged truce between the two sides took hold. Vice-President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, acting as temporary head of state, announced he would pull back government forces. And Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, who heads the Hashid confederation, agreed that his forces would leave the streets and government ministries they seized this past week.

News of the President’s departure ignited celebrations in the streets of the capital Sunday. The thousands of young protesters camped outside the university danced and sang while 20 head of cattle were prepared for slaughter, as befits such a festive event.

But the partying is premature, the President’s spokesman warned. “Everyone is jumping to conclusions, big time,” the spokesman said speaking on condition of remaining anonymous. Mr. Saleh “will definitely be back [as President]” after his recuperation, he insisted.

“That’s highly unlikely,” countered Mr. Iryani, whose grandfather served as president of the Yemen Arab Republic from 1967-74. “If Saleh was having trouble maintaining control before, I don’t see how he can stay in charge now that he’s been badly wounded.”

“I expect now the GCC initiative will be implemented,” Mr. Iryani said, referring to the efforts by members of the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, had been mediating a resolution to the conflict in Yemen, negotiating a handover of power from Mr. Saleh and new elections.

Three times, Mr. Saleh said he accepted the terms of the handover, and three times he backed away.

“Now there’s no reason it can’t proceed,” Mr. Iryani said.

Friday’s blast at the presidential mosque was initially blamed on the Hashid fighters who were thought to have fired a rocket at the compound just when Mr. Saleh, his family and senior members of his regime were at midday prayers. Further investigation apparently led to other conclusions and Mr. Saleh personally appealed for there not to be retaliation against the al-Ahmars.

Indeed, suspicion now is that a bomb, rather than a rocket, was the cause of the deadly explosion. The accuracy and timing of the blast and the amount of shrapnel that resulted in the death of several guards and a cleric, and the serious wounding of Mr. Saleh, one of his sons and a number of government officials, support that theory.

“It would only have taken a single person working on the inside to do this,” Mr. Iryani said.

While the United States is keen to take advantage of the current situation to implement the GCC initiative, Saudi Arabia, the major backer of the accord, now wants to proceed slowly on the matter.

“Saudi has split with the U.S. over all this,” said Rafat al-Akhali, a Canadian-Yemeni businessman and political activist. “The Saudis seem determined that Saleh return [to Yemen] and be part of the handover,” Mr. al-Akhali said. “They’re very keen on an end to the feuding between the Salehs and the al-Ahmars.”