Rick Santorum's 2012 Adventure

Rick Santorum's 2012 Adventure

Am I the only political observer who finds it just a tad odd that the likes of fmr. U.S. Senators Dan Coats, Carol Moseley Braun, and Rick Santorum are striving to stage comebacks lately?

After all, here are three figures who, over the past five to ten years, have been rather irrelevant in American politics. Coats retired from the U.S. Senate in '98, while Moseley Braun and Santorum were ousted in their bids for re-election in '98 and '06, respectively. For years, these three appeared toast when it came to the political scene, and now, to the surprise of most political junkies, Coats has now returned to his old U.S. Senate seat, Moseley Braun is very competitive in the Chicago mayoral race vs. Rahm Emanuel, and Santorum, somehow, someway, appears poised to make a bid for U.S. President in '12.

Santorum is who I'd like to focus upon here. After all, I've spent the past two weeks already delving into Moseley Braun's situation, and I spoke at length about Coats's bid last summer. Both of their returns to the political arena have been very impressive, but it's Santorum's attempt at a comeback that has most piqued by curiosity.

After all, just how could this man, who lost his Pennsylvania re-election bid by a hefty 18 points (!) in '06, seriously think he has a shot in a presidential race?

For the longest time, I myself hadn't been able to answer it. Santorum's way to the right of most Americans when it comes to social conservatism, and he hardly has a notable record on foreign affairs or matters of other domestic policy. He eeked-out two U.S. Senate victories by rather narrow margins, and against pretty lackluster candidates to boot. When the Pennsylvania Democrats finally mounted a decent candidate, Bob Casey, Jr., he was completely obliterated in this swing state. (Of course, in a presidential race, if the Republican candidate loses by 18 points in Pennsylvania, they lose by about 15 nationwide - in other words, a complete blowout.)

Then, I think I figured it out.

The first GOP presidential contest, Iowa, is a far different environment than Pennsylvania. The religious right is overwhelming in an Iowa Republican primary, and that is precisely Santorum's base. In Pennsylvania, the prominence of the religious right is there, but only to a certain extent. In Iowa, it's a much stronger force, and Santorum might well have the capability of winning over this base, especially if the likes of Palin and Huckabee were to pass on a run.

That's just the thing, of course - if religious right-friendly candidates like Palin and Huckabee do run, Santorum is toast. In fact, at that point, he probably wouldn't enter the race, anyway. But, if either or both of those major candidates did opt out of 2012, Santorum could find myself a huge opening here. Iowa is a state where the likes of Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes managed to gain traction. Sure, the Iowan support alone wasn't enough to get them very far, but, at the very least, it provided someone like Keyes the momentum and boost in finances to continue on in the race.

That's what Santorum is hoping for - something like a decent third-place finish in Iowa, which will give him the oomph necessary to advance into South Carolina. No, he won't win, but if someone like the moderate Romney does, he'll wind up virtually forced to at least consider the conservative Santorum as his running-mate. Which, of course, would be completely toxic, since Santorum is a dreadful candidate outside of a Republican primary.

Unlike Moseley Braun, I don't much personally admire Santorum. In fact, he's one of my least favorite politicians ever. I find him downright vile. That's not to say, of course, that I'm not completely entranced and fascinated by his bizarre attempt at a comeback.